Saturday, September 02, 2006

GDP growth revised upwards

Growth in real GDP for the second quarter was revised upwards from 2.5% to 2.9%. The avearge growth rate in real GDP in the post WWII period is about 3%, so we are very near the average. Given the record high oil prices, at least the some of the air coming out of the housing bubble, and the Fed's 17 straight interest rate hikes, the performance of the economy is surprisingly strong.

However, Nouriel Roubini has a very sour opinion of the economy,
"If anything, anybody with sense would revise down their numbers, based on the inventory'' increase, said Roubini, who estimates third-quarter growth of 1.5 percent and no change in GDP in the fourth."
but is misquoted or he has a very high opinion of himself

"The Fed is going to cut rates some time late in the fall or early in the winter, because I expect a recession.''

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